Energy certainty in times of grid congestion.

Energy certainty in times of grid congestion

Electrification in the Netherlands is accelerating rapidly. Businesses are investing in electric vehicles, heat pumps, and local generation. But the growth of these sustainability ambitions is increasingly running up against the limits of the electricity grid. New connections are being refused, upgrades delayed, and grid operators are openly warning of possible power outages.

Where energy used to be available as a matter of course, that is no longer the case. Businesses are finding that they need to look not only at the price of energy, but above all at whether they can rely on having enough capacity available at any moment to keep operating, expand, and protect their future.

Energy certainty has therefore become a new strategic theme within the energy transition. It is no longer only about cost control, but about continuity, room for growth, and retention of capacity. From that perspective, energy certainty can be divided into three dimensions: operational, strategic, and contractual.
‍

1. Operational energy certainty — keeping operations running when the grid fails

The most tangible form of energy certainty is the question: what happens if the power goes out? For many businesses, that is not a theoretical question. A sudden voltage dip or brief outage can bring production lines to a standstill, shut down charging hubs, and interrupt automated processes. That causes chain reactions: PLCs and robots need to be restarted, batches fall out of specification, semi-finished products become waste, staff wait, planners reshuffle schedules, and transport commitments are pushed back. Direct losses quickly add up in lost production per hour, but the indirect losses, such as penalties for non-delivery, quality claims, and reputational damage, are often even greater.

Why does this happen? The grid is increasingly reaching its limits at peak moments. In winter, demand peaks mainly between 16:00 and 21:00. In summer, there is a feed-in peak around midday due to large volumes of solar generation. Older districts with high heat demand and areas with high simultaneous consumption or generation are especially vulnerable. Grid operator Enexis recently warned that districts including Tilburg-Noord, Den Bosch-Noord, Etten-Leur, Uden, and Ommen could temporarily be left without power. According to its spokesperson, overloading occurs mainly during the busiest hours: in winter because of higher demand, and in summer because of large-scale PV feed-in.

This is exactly the domain of operational energy certainty: making sure processes keep running when the public grid falters.
‍

2. Strategic energy certainty — growing without waiting

The second dimension of energy certainty is about the future: the ability to keep growing within the limits of the electricity grid. Many businesses discover how tight the grid really is only when they start planning an expansion. An additional production line, a new cold store, or a charging hub for electric trucks can no longer simply be connected. More and more often, entrepreneurs are told by the grid operator that there is “no capacity available for the time being”, with waiting times that can run to three years or more.

The consequences are substantial. Production plans are delayed, contracts with customers or transport partners need to be revised, and sustainable investments such as fleet electrification or heat transition projects come to a standstill. Even when capacity is available, businesses still need to work within restrictions on when it can be used: contracted capacity must not be exceeded, even temporarily. Growth therefore becomes not just a matter of ambition, but of available grid space.

Strategic energy certainty means being able to plan ahead without depending on the pace of grid reinforcement. It calls for insight into your own consumption profile, flexibility in energy demand, and the ability to flatten peaks. Businesses that invest in this can continue with their expansion plans despite grid congestion.

In practice, that means doing more with the same connection. By shifting demand to off-peak periods, for example, or absorbing temporary peaks with local storage, additional room is created within the existing contract. An Energy Management System, or EMS, helps with this by continuously forecasting, controlling, and optimising.

Strategic energy certainty is therefore not about technology alone, but about agility. It enables businesses to continue with their growth plans even when the grid says no, allowing them to stay in control of their own pace of development rather than becoming dependent on the grid operator’s timetable.

‍

3. Contractual energy certainty — use it, or lose it

Contractual energy certainty is about retaining the capacity you have already contracted. This is becoming increasingly important now that the ACM is working on the introduction of the Use It or Lose It rule, or UIOLI. The purpose of this rule is to use the electricity grid more efficiently: where a large user persistently fails to use a significant part of its contracted capacity, the grid operator may reduce that capacity and reallocate it to another party.

In practice, this means that idle capacity can no longer simply be retained indefinitely. A data centre that has, for example, contracted 50 MW but never exceeds 60 per cent over a two-year period may find its connection adjusted. The same applies to a logistics company that has contracted 1 MW but consistently uses only 0.6 MW, where there is no demonstrable growth plan. In that case, businesses do not just lose room for expansion, but also flexibility to absorb peaks or start new processes.

The ACM indicates as a guideline that where structural utilisation remains below roughly 75 per cent of contracted capacity over a period of around two years, redistribution may come into view. At 90 per cent utilisation, intervention is unlikely. So the issue is not temporary fluctuations, but persistently low usage without a credible growth outlook. A brief “touch” of capacity, for example by switching on a battery for a moment, does not count as structural use.

For businesses, this means contractual energy certainty is no longer automatic. They must demonstrate that contracted capacity is being retained for valid reasons. That requires active energy management and a clear case towards the grid operator.
‍

What businesses can already do now to reduce UIOLI risk:

1. Map the utilisation of your connection structurally.
   Monitor imported capacity per quarter-hour, analyse peaks, and calculate average usage over longer periods. An EMS can record this data automatically.

2. Substantiate growth with concrete plans.
   Show that additional capacity will be needed soon through ordered equipment, planned expansions, or contracts with customers.

3. Provide a clear ramp-up pathway.
   Set out when and how consumption will increase, for example through the commissioning of new production lines or the electrification of vehicles.

4. Use capacity regularly and demonstrably.
   Structural use, for example via charging profiles or energy storage, carries more weight than incidental peaks.

5. Document communication and decisions.
   Keep a record of when you spoke to the grid operator and what evidence or planning information was shared.

Contractual energy certainty therefore goes further than simply having a contract. It calls for insight, substantiation, and strategic forward thinking. Businesses that can demonstrate their utilisation and growth expectations retain their capacity. Those that cannot run the risk of the grid operator adjusting their connection, and quite literally losing power.
‍

Energy certainty as a condition for growth

The energy transition brings opportunities, but also new dependencies. Where energy used to be a given, it has now become a strategic factor. Businesses need not only to produce sustainably, but also to know with confidence that they can keep operating, keep growing, and retain their contractual rights.

Operational energy certainty is about continuity: continuing to produce when the grid falters. Strategic energy certainty is about agility: being able to expand without waiting for grid reinforcement. And contractual energy certainty protects the foundation: retaining the capacity you already have by making demonstrable use of it.

Together, these three layers form the foundation of a future-ready operation. Businesses that respond to this today create an advantage: they are less dependent on the grid, stay in control of their investments, and can grow sustainably at their own pace.

At Steddion, we help businesses build that certainty. With smart storage, software, and control, we make sure energy is not a limitation, but a powerful part of your business strategy. Because in a crowded energy market, the winners are not those with the most capacity, but those with the greatest certainty over that capacity.

‍

‍